I love the conspiracy theories flying over Big Brown not only losing the final leg of the Triple Crown but coming in dead last. He was supposed to win, don’t you know?! Obviously if he lost there must be some dark secret behind it!

Some of the theories I’ve heard:

• Gamblers had the fix in so they could win.
• Bookies had the fix in so they wouldn’t lose big.
• The other jockeys conspired to box out Big Brown, not caring who won so long as it wasn’t him.
• The horse was suddenly taken off steroids, thus explaining away both his previous good performances and his last dreadful one.
• The horse just didn’t give a f**k.

On and on it goes.

Come here, I’m going to tell you the real reason Big Brown lost. Get close, I need to whisper, we wouldn’t want the conspiracy theorists to know the real reason, would we?

Big Brown lost because… he lost.

Simple, isn’t it? There’s a saying in football that on any given Sunday anyone can win. What that means is, it doesn’t matter who is supposed to win, it doesn’t matter who is better on paper, on any given Sunday it is up for grabs and anyone can walk away with it.

Big Brown lost because… any given Sunday, baby. Any given Sunday.

You need to understand: There is no such thing as a sure thing. Nothing is absolutely, 100% guaranteed.

If Big Brown had been the only horse running the Belmont Stakes, a Triple Crown win still could not be guaranteed. Even a horse running without any competition could break its leg right out of the gate, its heart could explode half way around, it could suddenly develop agoraphobia and refuse to set hoof on the track. Even in that seemingly guaranteed situation, there is still the element of doubt, no matter how slight, that the horse will never get to the finish line.

Though something seems 99.9999% locked up and assured, there’s still that .0001% likelihood of it not happening, and sometimes that .0001% will hit. Playing the percentages just means you’re likely to win, it doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed to win. There’s no such animal. Take it from someone who’s seen that .0001% come up more times than would seem possible.

Any given Sunday, baby. Any given Sunday.

Posted: June 10th, 2008 under Horse Racing, Success.
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